Showing posts with label professional development. Show all posts
Showing posts with label professional development. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

TechForum NY is October 19th - register today for great PD



TechForum NY, sponsored by Tech&Learning Magazine, is Friday, October 19th at the Westchester Marriott in Tarrytown, NY (670 White Plains Rd., Tarrytown, NY 10591). Registration and continental breakfast begin at 7 am with the opening keynote starting at 8:15.

Join us for a day of learning, sharing, collaboration and more. There will be a keynote address, breakout sessions, and round table sessions where everyone contributes in a discussion on the topic at hand.

Some of the topics: technology in the classroom, Social Media in Education, New Tools for Educators, meeting the needs of students, assessment, educational use of iPads, Evernote, Google for education, technology and special education, STEM resources and much more. I'm presenting on Evernote and Social Media in Education.

Breakfast and lunch are included in the registration fee. There are also two refreshment breaks in the morning (included) which gives you time to network with other educators and check out the vendor displays. At the end of the day, there is a reception (included) hosted by the vendors with food and drink and time to network some more.

There is still time to register and attend:
Tech Forum New York: Insight & Innovation for Technology Leaders
Friday October 19, 2012 | Westchester Marriott | Tarrytown, NY

Join Tech & Learning magazine for a day of networking and professional development.

Register today for $185 per person – that’s a $104 savings! Use code NY12GRM

Register here. Program Information here.

Hopefully we'll see some of you there.


Tech&Learning Magazine is a great resource for educators (both print and online) and is FREE for qualified educators. The website and magazine have lots of great resources, product reviews, ideas and much more. Check out the Blogs for great articles from educators around the world.




Monday, September 24, 2012

Tools for Changing/Improving PD and Meetings


Professional Development and Faculty Meetings are typically held face-to-face and many times are longer than they need to be, or too much time is spent on things that only affect a small percentage of those present. There are some tools and resources that can be used to change how and when PD and Meetings are held.

Access everywhere
1. Google Docs/Google Drive - use Google Docs for meeting and PD agendas and shared resources. Participants can edit it in real time, or offline, for collaboration and meeting notes and minutes. Share the agenda ahead of time. Don't print things anymore.





2. Google+ - use Google+ and create a Circle for your PD or meeting groups and hold online discussions, post resources, and more, all online.



 

3. Google+ Hangouts - use this video conferencing tool to hold virtual meetings and training sessions.



4. Evernote - use Evernote to take meeting notes, prepare resources for PD, and then share all of that with others. Limit paper and make it easier to share resources.



5. Edmodo - Edmodo is a closed, private social network. You can set up groups for meetings and PD and share resources, have online discussions, and more using it.

edcamp
6. EdCamp model - the Edcamp model puts the participants in the driver's seat for PD (and meetings) and allows for PD to be more meaningful.


What ideas and resources do you use for meetings and PD?




Monday, September 10, 2012

Tech&Learning announces T&L University - online PD for teachers



Tech&Learning is a great resource for educators. It is a print/online magazine, along with a great website. They also produce TechForum educational conferences (great for all educators) and Virtual TechForum.

The Tech&Learning magazine, available free to qualified educators, is released monthly and contains articles, tips, resources, product reviews, and much more.

They have just announced a new endeavor: Tech&Learning University, which provides online Professional Development to K-12 educators. Courses are on-demand and focus on topics such as Educational Technology, Effective Instruction, Educational Leadership and much more. 

It is not free, but is a great option for teachers looking for PD opportunities. The site to get started is http://www1.kdsi.org/TL%20. You start by selecting your state and then it will show you the courses available. What is really nice is that many of the courses are authorized for CEU's in your state, as well as college credits. Many other sources of PD do not actually count towards CEU requirements for many states.

Check it out, explore the course offerings for your state. 







Sunday, August 12, 2012

EdCampCT Reflections and Resources



EdcampCT 2012 was held this past Friday at the Ethel Walker School in Simsbury, CT. Hats off to the planning/hosting team for another great event. And, of course, hats off to the food service team for the awesome lunch and those incredible homemade potato chips!

For those who don't know, Edcamp is a great series of free, unconferences for educators. The Edcamp model is unique in that attendees set the agenda the morning of the conference and the sessions are not led by one person, but are rather a collaboration of both the facilitator and attendees. It is a great way to learn, share, and connect with other educators. They are held all over the world.

The first session I attended was "Twitter as a PLN". This was started by a teacher who wanted to know more about Twitter and it's use in education. Most of the participants were non-Twitter users or new to Twitter. Dan Callahan and I shared our experiences, tips, and ideas on how best to use Twitter as an educator and part of a PLN, as well as some great resources, like Cybraryman's (Jerry Blumengarten) site. Many of the teachers left the session ready to get going on Twitter and expand their PLN.

This year, I facilitated a discussion on Evernote and it's use in education. There were about 25 people in the room and we had a great discussion. Participants ranged from never heard of or used Evernote to some who were experts in it's use. We discussed Evernote and it's use by teachers, administrators and students in school, features and products, tips and ideas, and much more. It was a great session.

The conversations continued during lunch and I made a bunch of notes and connections while eating.

The next session was on layered curriculum, a way of differentiating for different levels of students. A good resource was www.help4teachers.com.

The last session I went to was on Learning Management Systems, specifically Schoology and Edmodo. The discussion was all about best practices, what people have done, how they implement them in their class and much more.

The day wrapped up with a raffle for some prizes and a smackdown, were participants came up and had 2 minutes to share a resource with the group. You can see a list of all of the resources shared during the smackdown here.

Some other resources that were talked about that I'm going to look into in more depth include Pixlr, We Video and Freely.


It was a great day, filled with fun, learning, discussions, connections, and meeting some members of my PLN in person finally. I highly recommend Edcamps!




Related:

Edcamp - teacher run, awesome, free educational conferences

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Excellent Online Professional Development Resources for Teachers



Professional Development for educators is something that I believe still needs to be improved. Many educators have turned online for some of their professional development. Social media provides a great resource for educators, especially Twitter, to connect, share and learn with other educators. There are new forms of in-person professional development, like Edcamps, that are also a great way for educators to learn new things.


Check out some more great information and resources on educator professional development.

Professional Development for Educators needs to change

11 steps to planning quality Professional Development

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Virtual Summer Camp for Teachers - on demand learning for educators



The 4th Annual Virtual Summer Camp for Teachers is now available. It is being hosted through Learni.st.

The Virtual Summer Camp for Teachers provides on-demand, anytime learning for educators. The summer camp is organized by topic areas, which include: Common Core Resources, Essential Apps for Educators, Webinar and Online PD opportunities, Virtual Crafts, and even a mess hall with food and recipe ideas.



On July 24th there will be a live component ASCD Webinar. You can register for this free webinar here: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/873801905

Materials from the previous three Virtual Summer Camps are available also:

Virtual Summer Camp Year 1
Virtual Summer Camp Year 2
Virtual Summer Camp Year 3

So, go camping this summer and learn some new things for next year: http://learni.st/users/MikeFisher/boards/1950-virtual-summer-camp-for-teachers-2012


Source: http://digigogy.com

Related:

EdCamp CT is Aug 10th. I'm going. Are you? You should be! (and if you can't be there in person, follow along on Twitter)








Monday, June 4, 2012

EdmodoCon 2012 - free online educational conference Aug 8th


EdmodoCon 2012

EdumodoCon is a free, online professional development conference being held on Wednesday, August 8th, 2012. Throughout the day, teachers will share ways they are using Edmodo and other digital tools in the classroom. It is scheduled for 10:00am - 9:00pm ET (GMT -5).

If you are interested in presenting, go to the Call for Presenters site.

You can register for the conference, for free, here.

Edmodo is a great resource for teachers and students, providing a secure social learning network for classes. Teachers can host online discussions, share resources, and assign work to students.



Related:

22 Great Tips on using Edmodo in the classroom

5 Great course management resources for educators

Which Social Network should you use? Infographic on which to use when.

Some more great Android Apps for Education (including Edmodo app)







Friday, May 11, 2012

EdCampCT is Aug 10, 2012 - registration now open - free, awesome PD



edcamp

EdCamp is a great series of free, unconferences for educators. The Edcamp model is unique in that attendees set the agenda the morning of the conference and the sessions are not led by one person, but are rather a collaboration of both the facilitator and attendees.

EdCamp is coming back to Connecticut this summer. EdCampCT will be held August 10th, 2012. You can register HERE. It will be held at the Ethel Walker School in Simsbury, CT again, which is an absolutely beautiful school.

I attended the first EdCampCT last year and it was awesome. It is so nice to be able to learn about topics you want to learn about in a relaxed, discussion format. It's also nice to know that if you find a session doesn't meet your needs, you can just get up and go to another one and no one's feelings are hurt because that is the model. I learned and shared my knowledge with others. It was a great day.

If you haven't been to an EdCamp yet, you need to get to one! See the related link below for more information about other upcoming EdCamps near you.

Registration link for EdCampCT - http://edcampct.ticketleap.com/2012/ 

Related:

Edcamp - teacher run, awesome, free educational conferences




Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Powerful Learning Practice - Day in the Life of Connected Educator



Powerful Learning Practice is a site that provides professional development and resources for teachers to implement new technologies and pedagogy to create "21st Century Classrooms." There are some good resources on the site.

They have an article entitled "A Day in the Life of a Connected Educator – Using social media in 21st century classrooms" that looks at how teachers use social media and other Web 2.0 tools to improve teaching and learning.

The infographic is interesting and has ideas for using social media in the classroom. It follows a teacher through her day as she uses social media sites and Web 2.0 resources throughout her day as an educator. Teachers can get some great ideas from this for their own use.

It can be found at their site:
http://plpnetwork.com/2012/05/07/a-day-in-the-life-of-a-connected-educator-using-social-media-throughout-your-day/



Related:

Social Media in Education - connect, share, learn, communicate and more
Twitter, Google Plus, and Facebook - a nice comparison
Which Social Network should you use? Infographic on which to use when.

Friday, April 13, 2012

Edcamp Livebinder - info, resources, links and descriptions


edcamp

Edcamp is a great series of free, unconferences for educators. The Edcamp model is unique in that attendees set the agenda the morning of the conference and the sessions are not led by one person, but are rather a collaboration of both the facilitator and attendees.

Carolyn Jo Starkey has created an excellent Livebinder about Edcamp.

In the Livebinder, she has binders on what Edcamp is, how to plan one, how to finance one, presentations about and from Edcamps, participant feedback and links to articles, blogs, and webpages about Edcamp and improving professional development for teachers. It's a great resource for anyone wondering about, attending, or planning an Edcamp (or other PD ).




Upcoming Edcamps:

April 14, 2012 edcamp Vermont
April 19, 2012 edcamp Luleå
April 21, 2012 edcamp COEDTech
April 21, 2012 edcamp NC
April 28, 2012 edcamp Boston
April 28, 2012 edcamp Denver
April 28, 2012 edcamp Prince George
May 3, 2012 Upper Valley edcamp
May 5, 2012 edcamp Bham
May 5, 2012 edcamp Detroit
May 5, 2012 edcamp NYC
May 6, 2012 edcamp Saskatoon
May 12, 2012 edcamp Milwaukee
May 12, 2012 edcamp Okanagan
May 12, 2012 edcamp Wine Country
May 19, 2012 edcamp Philly



Related:


Social Learning Summit - free virtual conference April 21, 2012

Professional Development for Educators needs to change

Professional Development Sourcebook - free PD resources for teachers

11 steps to planning Professional Development

Discouraged by colleagues who won't go to PD without CEUs.

Jason T. Bedell - Professional Development 2.0






Free Online Education Conference April 25 - 26 2012 - great opportunity for PD



SimpleK12, a great resource for educators, is sponsoring a great free online Education Conference Wednesday, April 25th - Thursday, April 26th, 2012. Topics include Google Earth and Maps, Free Web Tools, Google Plus, Social Networking, Blogging, Student Projects, iPads in Education, Digital Writing, Curation, and much more. The conference runs for 24 hours so you can attend at anytime, from anywhere.

FINAL OEC Logo

Learn something new without the need for travel or money.


(And don't forget that the Social Learning Summit - free virtual conference is April 21, 2012 )


View a full list of topics and register here: http://simplek12.com/tlc/webinars/#OEC


Conference Flyer:




Related:

Social Learning Summit - free virtual conference April 21, 2012




Tuesday, April 3, 2012

EdCamp CT is 8-10-2012! Great, free PD for educators


edcamp

Edcamp is a great series of free, unconferences for educators. The Edcamp model is unique in that attendees set the agenda the morning of the conference and the sessions are not led by one person, but are rather a collaboration of both the facilitator and attendees.

EdCamp is coming back to Connecticut this summer. EdCampCT will be held August 10th, 2012. You can sign up here to be notified when registration opens. It will be held at the Ethel Walker School in Simsbury, CT again, which is an absolutely beautiful school.
 
  I attended the first EdCampCT last year and it was awesome. It is so nice to be able to learn about topics you want to learn about in a relaxed, discussion format. It's also nice to know that if you find a session doesn't meet your needs, you can just get up and go to another one and no one's feelings are hurt because that is the model. I learned and shared my knowledge with others. It was a great day.

If you haven't been to an EdCamp yet, you need to get to one! See the related link below for more information about other upcoming EdCamps near you.

Related:

Edcamp - teacher run, awesome, free educational conferences

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Focus On Developing Teachers, Not Simply Measuring Them

This cross-posted item is from a piece I wrote for the Silicon Valley Education Foundation's TOP-Ed blog.

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Amid the current flurry of state policy reform activity around teaching, I've been thinking about what's missing. My conclusion: A focus on teachers as learners....

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To read more, visit the TOP-Ed blog post.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Baking Bread Without The Yeast

Among my son's favorite books are the ones in Richard Scarry's Busytown series. In What Do People Do All Day?, Able Baker Charlie puts too much yeast in the dough, resulting in a gigantic, explosive loaf of bread that the bakers (and Lowly Worm) need to eat their way out of.

The opposite problem -- a lack of yeast -- is present in Michelle Rhee's recent op-ed in Education Week. In it, she limits her call to "rethink" teaching policy to "how we assign, retain, evaluate, and pay educators" and to "teacher-layoff and teacher-tenure policies." (And she casts the issue of retention purely as one about so-called "last-in, first-out" employment policies rather than about school leadership, collaboration or working conditions.)

The utter absence of any focus or mention of teacher development either in this op-ed or in her organization's (StudentsFirst) expansive policy agenda leaves me wondering if Rhee believes that teachers are capable of learning and improving. If Rhee indeed does believe that new teacher induction and career-long professional development have value, then why does she consistently ignore it in her public statements and in her organization's strategic priorities? The alternative, of course, is a view that teachers are static beings, incapable of improvement. They are either born effective or ineffective. "Mr. Anderson's value-added score is an 18, thus he is an ineffective teacher and should be fired because his inability to teach cannot be ameliorated." We, of course, know this not to be the case. This alternative view also involves a strategy of simply trying to hire and fire our way to success. From research and international exemplars, I think most of us understand such a narrow approach to be ineffectual, albeit politically attractive in some quarters, especially among the Republican governors that Rhee is assisting exclusively.

High-quality development opportunities for teachers are like the yeast that helps the bread to rise. Comprehensive teacher induction has been shown to accelerate new teacher effectiveness and increase their students' learning. Likewise, personalized and purposeful professional development also can strengthen teaching skills and classroom impact.

It seems to me that a stated policy goal should be to ensure that as many as teachers as possible successfully pass educator evaluations being developed across the nation. Too many advocates such as Rhee appear to be eager to fire more teachers rather than make investments and restructure schools to maximize their effectiveness. A critical role for policy then would be to re-define teacher development in a way that raises the quality bar and invests public dollars in programs and approaches shown to have the desired impact on teaching and learning. Isn't that something we all can agree with?

Teachers are tremendously influential -- and we should do everything we can to unleash their full power. On teacher effectiveness, I'm unwilling to settle for half a loaf.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

rheeForm


Proposed education reforms that do not imagine that current and beginning teachers can become more effective while on the job should be considered null and void. This postulation, if accepted, would direct Michelle Rhee's new StudentsFirst agenda to the nearest paper shredder.

To be blunt, it is just plain naive and short-sighted to think that we can maximize teacher effectiveness purely by firing more teachers and marginally changing the cadre of incoming teacher candidates. Is supporting and strengthening the teaching practice of our veteran educators not worthy of our focus and investment?

StudentsFirst's "Elevate Teaching" policy objectives are limited to evaluating teachers and principals, reforming teacher certification laws, reforming teacher compensation, "exiting" teachers, and eliminating teacher tenure. Specifically, the objectives are:
  • State law must require evaluation that is based substantially on student achievement. Evaluation tools should measure at least half of a teacher's performance based on student achievement, using a value-added growth model. The other aspects of a teacher's evaluations should derive from measures that align with student results, including high-quality observations and student evaluations of teacher practice.
  • To avoid all teachers being ranked as effective without meaningful assessment, evaluations must anchor effectiveness around a year's worth of growth.
  • State law must require principal evaluation that is based on student achievement and effective management of teachers. Districts should evaluate at least half of a school administrator's performance based on student achievement, and the remaining portion should mostly relate to their ability to attract, retain, manage, and develop excellent teachers.
  • State law should give districts the autonomy to develop teacher evaluation systems apart from the collective bargaining process. Evaluations should be a matter of district policy.
  • States must reduce legal barriers to entry in the teaching profession, including complicated credentialing or certification schemes that rely upon factors that do not clearly correlate with teacher effectiveness.
  • State law should not be structured to penalize districts financially for recruiting teachers from alternate certification programs.
  • States should adopt a clear process by which alternative certification programs are authorized, continually evaluated, and decommissioned if not producing high-quality educators.
  • State law must facilitate digital learning by allowing certification for online instruction and modifying or eliminating mandatory "seat time" laws.
  • State law must require pay structures based primarily on effectiveness. Teacher contracts must allow for individual performance-based pay.
  • State law and district policy should not mandate higher salaries for master's degrees or additional education credits.
  • State law should require staffing decisions (transfers, reductions, placements) be based on teacher effectiveness.
  • State laws must prohibit forced placements and allow district control in staffing. Districts should ensure that teacher contracts require mutual consent placements. Districts should have the flexibility to offer defined grace periods, severance, or other options for teachers who have effective ratings, but do not find a mutually agreeable placement. Teachers rated ineffective should be exited from the system.
  • State law should not grant, implicitly or directly, tenure or permanent contracts for PK–12 education professionals.
There is evidence (from sources such as IES and AIR) that shows that high-quality approaches to new teacher induction and professional development pay dividends in terms of student outcomes. Why would a "student first" agenda utterly ignore initiatives that work in favor of some that have a paltry or non-existent research base?

To keep it brief, please read some of my most relevant past posts arguing why a focus on teacher support and development makes sense and why it should be at the centerpiece of every education reform agenda.
With regard to the StudentsFirst plan, to use a Twitter construct, #edreformfail.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

You're Fired!

I am deeply troubled to read columns like this ("Improve education, fire bad teachers") -- both the title and the content -- from a reputable source like the Center for American Progress (CAP). Much as the likes of FOX News are in desperate need of balance and breadth of perspective, so is this column.

Where is the discussion about the need to support teachers to become more effective through improved preparation, stronger induction and mentoring, and job-embedded professional development? What about more than a throwaway line about the role of teacher evaluation systems to provide constructive feedback to help teachers identify strengths and weaknesses and help them become more effective?

I don't mean to pick on CAP too harshly, for some of its prior reports (such as this one) approached the teacher effectiveness issue more comprehensively and accurately. But if all we do is focus on firing teachers, without addressing other elements of teacher quality policy, we're going to dig ourselves into a hole that we'll never crawl out of. While stricter license and tenure requirements and more meaningful teacher evaluation systems might weed out truly ineffective teachers (a small minority), it won't do anything to help the vast majority teachers become more successful without a clear focus on individualized teacher development.

Another recent example of oversimplification and the repetitive 'teachers suck' mantra appeared on the pages of Newsweek masquerading as an actual news article. (I'm glad I canceled my subscription years ago.) The authors pontificated that, "Nothing, then, is more important than hiring good teachers and firing bad ones." Um, OK. Nothing, huh?

We need a broader vision here, folks, along the lines that the Obama Administration has articulated in its initial ESEA blueprint. It is not as simple as just firing more teachers. Columns like these do not convey the complexity and comprehensiveness of the policies, practices and implementation that is needed to truly improve teacher effectiveness across the board. They simplify the problem and cast the responsibility for educational failure solely on teachers.

Speaking of balance, here are more of my thoughts....

UPDATE: Eduwonk and Claus von Zastrow make good points on this issue -- as does Diane Ravitch (here and here). Bill Maher offers his own 'new rule, raising the important issue of parental involvement.

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Winners & Losers

Eduflack offers up a first-rate post today on the winners and losers in the education portion of the President's FY2011 budget.

Claus von Zastrow issues a wise caution regarding federal funding for professional development (UPDATE: as well as a second thought).

The New York Times's Sam Dillon and the National Journal's Eliza Krigman (hat tip: Eduwonk) have the scoop on implications for Elementary and Secondary Education Act reauthorization.

The budget is just at the first step and Congress has yet to have its say. Likewise, I wouldn't bet on reauthorization this election year (yep, congressional elections are only nine months away!). 2011? 2012? Anyone? UPDATE: Here is what the Education Experts at the National Journal's blog think.

Friday, January 29, 2010

State Teacher Policies Suck!

I'm sure glad that Kate Walsh and company weren't my professors in college. Damn! They are tough graders! With the exception of eight southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas) that received a 'C' and three northern states (Maine, Montana, Vermont) that received a 'F', every U.S. state received some version of a 'D' in the latest edition of the National Council on Teacher Quality's State Teacher Policy Yearbook. In grading the states, the authors look at five broad teacher quality areas (and numerous metrics within them): teacher preparation, expanding the pool of teachers, identifying effective teachers, retaining effective teachers, and exiting ineffective teachers.

While it is easy to poke holes at some of the National Council on Teacher Quality's seemingly ideologically-driven work (such as, I believe, its excessive focus on teacher pensions), much of its state policy analysis has a strong foothold in research and is one of the most comprehensive and regular analyses of state teacher policies. Like it or not, there is an increasing alignment between the NCTQ's scorecard and that employed by the U.S. Department of Education in the Race to the Top competition. The entire report should not be dismissed because of who they are (or are perceived to be). States should feel challenged by some of the analysis within the Yearbook and should consider looking to the "best practice" states identified under some of the metrics.

Here's a brief summary of the report's findings:
  • State teacher policies are "broken, outdated and inflexible."
  • Evaluation and tenure policies take too little or no account of classroom effectiveness. 47 states "allow tenure to be awarded virtually automatically."
  • States are "complicit" on keeping ineffective teachers in classrooms. Only 1 state separates dismissal policy for poor performance from criminal and moral violations.
  • Few states provide robust enough alternate routes into teaching.
  • States' requirements for elementary teacher, middle-school teacher and special education teacher preparation are inadequate.
  • There is too little accountability for teacher preparation in state policy. Only 5 states set minimum standards for teacher preparation program performance.
  • States "cling to outmoded compensation structures," including the single salary schedule.
My primary quibble with the report is that it appears to completely and utterly discount the role of induction, mentoring and professional development in strengthening teacher effectiveness. Even if we prepare teachers better, recruit non-traditional candidates into the profession, retain them longer, compensate them differently, make evaluations more regular and meaningful, and find appropriate ways to terminate the small fraction of truly incompetent ones, it still will not be enough to maximize teacher effectiveness. There will continue to be a need for high-quality, individualized support upon entry into the profession and regular opportunities for data-driven, instructionally-focused professional development through a teacher's career. Professional development is not featured as a metric in the report at all and induction only enters as a criteria with regard to teacher retention, rather than teacher effectiveness -- which is where its most important power truly lies. That said, the evaluative criteria the report lays out about induction policy (on page 183-184 of the printed report) are worth noting and includes elements that states must attend to: mentoring of sufficient frequency and duration, mentoring provided at the start of the school year, and attentive mentor selection and high-quality training.

I won't beat this horse any further today, but check out these past posts for greater substance on what I'm getting at here with regard to the inadequate focus on the developmental needs of new and veteran teachers:

Race To The Top: Under The Hood
RttT: Redefining Teacher Effectiveness
Measurement Is Not Destiny

In other news, experts are doubting the likelihood of a 2010 reauthorization of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, so these state teacher policies with an added dose of Race to the Top reforms is likely to be where it's at over the next year plus.